Are kids becoming the majority in large tournaments?

[nolan]

Sorry, Kevin, but I don’t believe in Deus ex machina solutions.

[kevin_bachler]

@nolan

Sorry, Kevin, but I don’t believe in Deus ex machina solutions.

Me neither; just some satire at some of the “suggestions” we’ve heard in the past…

[DENTONCHESS]

@gwschenk

@tmagchesspgh

A bigger question may be: Are kids driving adults to abandon playing in tournaments?..

I like seeing the kids and playing them. They are the future. The kids in my are are pretty much all polite. It’s nice watching them rise through the ranks. It doesn’t bother me in the least to have my hat handed to me by a 9 year-old girl.

…as well as learn to bathe themselves more frequently.

Now that’s an adult problem!

As to the first, I think the issue is as much with the shorter time controls such as G/30, much adored by kids and their parents, and abhorred by probably the majority of age 25 to 50 adults.

[nolan]

We can’t go back as far, due to data limitations, but here’s a breakdown by membership age group for regular-only events since mid 2005:

[code] year count 12/below 13-15 16-19 20-24 25-49 50-64 65/up

---

2006-05-31 27043 8362 3643 3261 1167 6364 3159 1088
2007-05-31 23770 5984 3124 3157 1220 5854 3325 1106
2008-05-31 23060 5684 2927 2837 1288 5633 3518 1173
2009-05-31 23536 6066 3020 2872 1326 5382 3678 1191
2010-05-31 22672 5717 2822 2607 1341 5201 3716 1266
2011-05-31 22687 5671 2835 2504 1262 5192 3887 1336
2012-05-31 23640 6313 2934 2632 1284 5206 3810 1461
2013-05-31 24843 6660 3339 2899 1356 5248 3722 1619
2014-05-31 25245 7117 3252 2803 1346 5392 3630 1705
2015-05-31 25608 7067 3510 3033 1270 5331 3617 1780
2016-05-31 26631 7738 3773 3074 1320 5305 3544 1877
2017-05-31 26935 7766 3828 3297 1383 5245 3406 2010
2018-05-31 27125 7750 3951 3286 1410 5309 3331 2088
2019-05-31 27712 8253 3901 3333 1479 5308 3253 2185[/code]

There were 10,661 adult players in slow chess events in FY 2006 and 10,746 in FY 2019, so the adult slow-chess player base has been pretty stable over the last 13 years. And the number of players under 20 actually dropped a little, 12,331 in FY 2006 and 11,976 in FY 2019.

Here’s the breakdown for dual rated events (ie, faster than G/65 or so). How much of the lower turnout for adult players is due to dislike of the time control and how much of it is just that many G/30 events are only open to scholastic age players is difficult to say.

[code] year count 12/below 13-15 16-19 20-24 25-49 50-64 65/up

---

2006-05-31 43009 25788 6710 4160 667 3760 1481 452
2007-05-31 44116 27001 6653 3890 794 3648 1657 475
2008-05-31 44918 26766 6857 4108 933 3810 1898 553
2009-05-31 43855 25864 6598 3857 983 3970 1999 584
2010-05-31 43529 25764 6326 3885 979 3768 2136 673
2011-05-31 43980 26488 6336 3832 900 3614 2116 692
2012-05-31 45990 28344 6478 3658 922 3715 2108 765
2013-05-31 48503 30114 6786 3934 924 3746 2132 867
2014-05-31 51743 32560 7309 4095 979 3774 2082 945
2015-05-31 54222 34264 7727 4375 888 3828 2123 1020
2016-05-31 57149 36206 8381 4756 961 3793 2028 1026
2017-05-31 59953 38162 9047 4913 949 3775 2029 1079
2018-05-31 62308 39616 9426 5243 997 3895 2006 1126
2019-05-31 62396 39018 9799 5240 1097 4045 1990 1207
[/code]

Just for kicks, here’s the breakdown for Quick-only and Blitz events combined:

[code] year count 12/below 13-15 16-19 20-24 25-49 50-64 65/up

---

2006-05-31 6145 1538 759 817 341 1716 740 234
2007-05-31 5898 1521 703 780 358 1578 748 210
2008-05-31 5990 1739 747 663 364 1516 751 210
2009-05-31 6742 1923 853 697 402 1697 916 254
2010-05-31 6958 1975 805 763 419 1720 998 278
2011-05-31 7092 2094 856 754 414 1632 1044 298
2012-05-31 7427 2363 894 749 383 1696 1027 315
2013-05-31 7900 2530 1062 842 419 1754 957 336
2014-05-31 8498 2665 1091 808 482 2046 1051 355
2015-05-31 9140 2957 1281 968 500 1962 1044 428
2016-05-31 10062 3316 1365 1048 557 2226 1099 452
2017-05-31 10997 3716 1630 1144 615 2278 1117 497
2018-05-31 12697 4649 1839 1307 667 2473 1175 587
2019-05-31 12486 4431 1786 1237 694 2592 1156 590[/code]

I suspect if I factored out the blitz side events at national scholastic events, the U/20 counts would go down significantly.

[gmaness0422]

In January, American Chess Promotions (Thad Rogers) will be hosting the second annual DR. MARTIN LUTHER KING, JR. “CLASSES” CHAMPIONSHIPS in Chamblee (about ten miles northeast of Atlanta), Georgia … … …

Four sections:

SENIOR CLASS – open to players born in 1970 or earlier ….

JUNIOR CLASS – open to players born in the years 1971 thru 1985 ….

SOPHOMORE CLASS – open to players born in the years 1986 thru 2000 ….

FRESHMAN CLASS – open to players born in 2001 and later ….

The kids will still be there, but unless you ARE one you won’t be PLAY-ing one!

Y’all come!

– Greg Maness, Chief TD

[sloan]

@nolan

The problem isn’t ‘seniors’. As the table posted upthread showed, in 1992 there were about 2500 seniors (age 50 or older) playing in rated events. In FY 2019 there were 2600 over 65 playing in rated events and another 4000 who were between 50 and 64.

The falloff has been in the 25-49 year old group, where numbers have dropped by about half, a decrease of over 6000 adult players, roughly equal to the total number of active senior players. Much of this is due to the ‘Fischer Boom’ era players getting older and a dearth in younger adults playing rated chess, despite huge numbers of scholastic players.

I’m afraid that as an organization of adult chess players, we are paying now for our policy failures over the last 25 or so years. It is probably fixable, it may even be fixed based on the number of strong young players we’re seeing, but there will no quick fix to the turnout problem for adults in the 25-49 age group.

Gotta be careful with this kind of analysis - have 25-49yo players been dropping out? or…has the Fischer boom bolus gotten older?

[nolan]

It’s mainly that as the Fischer boom players aged out of the 25-49 age cohort, they weren’t being replaced by an equal number of younger players, despite huge numbers of kids.

The churn rate, especially at younger ages, has been an ongoing challenge for years.

As an illustration, here’s a table showing players who were issued IDs in 2014-15 and how many of them are members today:

[code] age total stillmem pct

---

12/below 19814 2698 13.6
13-15 2791 141 5.1
16-19 1783 78 4.4
20-24 498 56 11.2
25-49 1862 234 12.6
50-64 488 105 21.5
65+ 221 46 20.8[/code]

[Smythe_Dakota]

Maybe the problem with the 25-49 age group is that both 25 and 49 are perfect squares.

Bill Smythe

[kevin_bachler]

@Smythe Dakota

Maybe the problem with the 25-49 age group is that both 25 and 49 are perfect squares.

Bill Smythe

I thought squares play chess. Besides, there are a lot of squares in chess.

[Smith]

@gmaness0422

In January, American Chess Promotions (Thad Rogers) will be hosting the second annual DR. MARTIN LUTHER KING, JR. “CLASSES” CHAMPIONSHIPS in Chamblee (about ten miles northeast of Atlanta), Georgia … … …

Four sections:

SENIOR CLASS – open to players born in 1970 or earlier ….

JUNIOR CLASS – open to players born in the years 1971 thru 1985 ….

SOPHOMORE CLASS – open to players born in the years 1986 thru 2000 ….

FRESHMAN CLASS – open to players born in 2001 and later ….

The kids will still be there, but unless you ARE one you won’t be PLAY-ing one!

Y’all come!

– Greg Maness, Chief TD

This is depressing. I’m in the senior class.

At least, I’d be one of the younger “seniors” since I was born in 1970.

[Moogy]

@Smith

@gmaness0422

In January, American Chess Promotions (Thad Rogers) will be hosting the second annual DR. MARTIN LUTHER KING, JR. “CLASSES” CHAMPIONSHIPS in Chamblee (about ten miles northeast of Atlanta), Georgia … … …

Four sections:

SENIOR CLASS – open to players born in 1970 or earlier ….

JUNIOR CLASS – open to players born in the years 1971 thru 1985 ….

SOPHOMORE CLASS – open to players born in the years 1986 thru 2000 ….

FRESHMAN CLASS – open to players born in 2001 and later ….

The kids will still be there, but unless you ARE one you won’t be PLAY-ing one!

Y’all come!

– Greg Maness, Chief TD

This is depressing. I’m in the senior class.

At least, I’d be one of the younger “seniors” since I was born in 1970.

I find it depressing because I wasn’t BORN in 1970. I was in the “Senior Class” of my High School in 1970! My current goal is to eventually become the highest rated active female player over age 95…

[Mulfish]

Why couldn’t you have had this when I lived in Atlanta?

[DENTONCHESS]

@kbachler

@nolan

The problem isn’t ‘seniors’. As the table posted upthread showed, in 1992 there were about 2500 seniors (age 50 or older) playing in rated events. In FY 2019 there were 2600 over 65 playing in rated events and another 4000 who were between 50 and 64.

The falloff has been in the 25-49 year old group, where numbers have dropped by about half, a decrease of over 6000 adult players, roughly equal to the total number of active senior players. Much of this is due to the ‘Fischer Boom’ era players getting older and a dearth in younger adults playing rated chess, despite huge numbers of scholastic players.

I’m afraid that as an organization of adult chess players, we are paying now for our policy failures over the last 25 or so years. It is probably fixable, it may even be fixed based on the number of strong young players we’re seeing, but there will no quick fix to the turnout problem for adults in the 25-49 age group.

All we need Mike are for Bill Gates and Warren Buffett to start sponsoring big prize low entry fee chess tournaments that provide additional prizes for a family team. The dad’s will all come back to chess.

Heck with dads, we need moms