One cannot win a World Championship with zero risk. Yes, Carlsen is a better intuitive player than Caruana, but for Magnus to offer a draw today and put all his chips on blitz and rapid makes zero sense to me. If the EV of the position is higher than the EV of the playoff, you play the game out.
Black was up on the clock and had a more pleasant position (earlier, the evaluation was close to a decisive advantage for Black). Carlsen has problems with his nerves!
I think Caruana was right to press and right to accept the draw after being outplayed (for only the second time in the match…game 1 was the other time). I am cautiously optimistic about Fabiano’s chances: not only is he a more concrete player, he is better able to control his emotions!
Roeder’s handicapping of the playoffs (80% odds of Carlsen victory) seems reasonable, if perhaps a bit too optimistic. Caruana is not as bad a blitz player as his blitz Elo suggests, and he is VERY strong in rapid play. Would Carlsen shut down rapid play to take games into blitz? That would be perverse.
A reasonable extrapolation would be to assume that Carlsen should have continued in game 12 as long as he pegged his (expectation of winning / risk of losing) => 4. Monday a.m. QB hypothetical: if Carlsen evaluated game 12 position as (40% chance of Carlsen win / 55% chance of drawing / 5% chance of Caruana win), then that would have increased Carlsen’s odds of winning the match significantly.
It would be nice to crown an American champion at the end of the day. I wish both players good luck, but I would be lying if I said I didn’t really want Caruana to win. Odds may be against it, but it wouldn’t be the first time a giant was felled. Go Fabio!
The rapid playoffs were really one-sided. Maybe if Caruana finds the draw in rook ending of the first game, things would have been different. But probably not: game two was an absolute crush.
Caruana will learn from this match. It’s possible to take one’s game to another level between age 26 and age 30 (Alekhine, Fischer, Topalov) or even later (Korchnoi). Maybe the Capablanca-Alekhine comparison is closest: the slightly older player had the greater intuitive gifts.
But even getting through the next Candidates cycle is a major challenge.
Congratulations to Magnus for defending the title. He was gracious in victory.
Looking at the games objectively, both players seemed to have been out of form. Each probably played too much in the months leading to the championship. Neither displayed great confidence which led to risk aversion even in games where there were favorable positions. If the rating system is accurate, the tied result after the classical games was reasonable. Magnus is proving to be more adaptable to all manner of play in this era of faster time controls.
It may be too early to say it conclusively, but we may be witnessing the end of “classical chess”. Just as the tournament game evolved to end adjournments, ban the use of analog clocks, and the disappearance of the Capablanca time control of 40/150, the prevalence of draws among the elite is leading the charge to faster time controls with more reliance on computer preparation, memorization, and physical fitness. It is increasingly a young players’ game. I expect we will see more Rapid Chess as it is easier and cheaper to organize compared to classical style tournaments.
I"m pretty sure the title is worth more to Carlsen than the money, although either way it’s a dang good payday.
As far as 12 draws in classical, I think it was more of a random thing rather than a portent of future matches.
That being said, I’m perfectly fine with Magnus Carlsen going into the rapid games, since he was clearly the favorite. If Caruana was known to be a formidable speed player, then maybe Carlsen Magnus would have tried harder to win a classical game. That being said, there is ample proof that prior World Chess Champions have been ACE at speed chess, so I think it’s perfectly fine for the winner to win in the shorter time controls.
If one is the world champion, they should excel in both classical and shorter time controls.
In any event, both players drew games in the initial 12, where they lost an opportunity to win the game.
Still, it’s times like these I wonder just how formidable Fischer would have been if he’d been born in say, the late early 90’s. Fischer didn’t just play chess, he was driven to win games. Sadly, he was born in the height of the cold war, and it ultimately unraveled his mind.
I agree that they looked out of form. I wonder why the commentators haven’t been saying this, or noticing it. Who knows what the explanation is; your guess that they had played too much in recent months is plausible, but I wouldn’t argue one way or another.
Game 10 was also weird (h3). That was the game that prompted J. Polgar to say, “you have to play sharper than that if you want to be world champion.”
I admit, that world championship matches these days tend to be full of draws. I remember Kramnik-Kasparov, where exactly two wins (and no losses) were all that Kramnik had to make do with. But, look at Caruana’s tournaments leading up to this (such as the Olympiad), then look at the match.
On the bright side, you’re right, their play was in some ways very impressive. After watching this match, I gained new respect for what Karjakin (and Carlsen) achieved in 2016. Everybody else tends to lose slightly inferior positions, but not these three guys.
Now that Kariakin and Caruana have failed to topple the Magnus, who else is up to the challenge and will come out of the next cycle to challenge? Over the years, challengers for the title only get one or two realistic chances to do it before they subside into the group of wannabes and get on with their lives as tournament players or work at a real job.
I read an article somewhere that said Caruana could take heart from having drawn the main match, and just come back and get Carlsen in two years. But that’s assuming a lot (look how that worked out for Karjakin!). But I think they are both still contenders, along with the rest of the world’s top ten, especially the younger ones (Ding, Giri, MVL). I think Caruana’s chances are as good as any of the others, but nothing is guaranteed. Another one to keep an eye on is Artemiev. He’s “only” 2709 (#36 on the rating list), but he’s also only 20 years old, and he’s already #3 in the rapid ratings and top ten in blitz. 2020 may be too soon for him, but I would expect him to be a strong contender in the cycle after that.
