Chess Travel Plans and the Coronavirus

[nolan]

The mortality rate for flu is more like 0.1% according to the CDC.

The mortality rate for coronavirus is still unclear, for multiple reasons, such as under-reporting of cases or a lack of testing.

[ChessSpawn]

@kbachler

It appears that infection rates are much lower with children than with adults. It also appears that the concentration of viruses adds to the infection issue.

Currently, the mortality rate for flu is a little under 1%. The current mortality rate for coronavirus is about 3.5%. It doesn’t spread as easily, but it appears to bring greater illness.

However, scientists are quick to point out that the 3.5% reflects all the early Chinese deaths before any precautions were being taken or treatment offered. Further, many cases of corona are so weak that people don’t even know they have it, with possibly even no symptoms. Thus, the denominator could be much much larger, and that rate could be much closer to 1%. Additionally, at this point there’s no known human immunity, but there is for flu, which contributes to a lower rate there.

All-in-all, corona appears more and more to be a serious, but temporary issue, well-met by good hygiene and common sense. Hopefully in 2 years we will have a vaccine and a build-up in human immunity from this spreading of virus.

Common sense is lacking in the US government response. Trump tried to lay blame for the poor initial US response on rule changes put in place by Obama. Already, that’s been debunked as another untruth.

My biggest concern is governments not properly reporting what is going on in their countries. While one would expect some dissembling from the Chinese, Russians and some middle Eastern nations, the posturing from the Trump administrations scares the ____ out of me. This is the time for science and rational action, not posturing and calling coronavirus a hoax. The last thing we need are for chess players, especially scholastic chess players to become ill. For now, I’m avoiding crowded venues, washing hands whenever needed and considering parts of my body to touch other than my mouth…

It will take some time for the depth and impact of this to become known. In the meantime, FIDE is advising competitors in it’s events to not shake hands, hug or kiss hello to anyone. There are players headed to the Candidates’ tournament who are quarantined presently in Moscow. Precautions are being taken to screen players heading to the seniors team event, but it would not surprise me to see this event cancelled.

Stay calm and listen to respected public health officials like Dr. Anthony Fauci.
theguardian.com/commentisfr … -president

[kevin_bachler]

@ChessSpawn

@kbachler

It appears that infection rates are much lower with children than with adults. It also appears that the concentration of viruses adds to the infection issue.

Currently, the mortality rate for flu is a little under 1%. The current mortality rate for coronavirus is about 3.5%. It doesn’t spread as easily, but it appears to bring greater illness.

However, scientists are quick to point out that the 3.5% reflects all the early Chinese deaths before any precautions were being taken or treatment offered. Further, many cases of corona are so weak that people don’t even know they have it, with possibly even no symptoms. Thus, the denominator could be much much larger, and that rate could be much closer to 1%. Additionally, at this point there’s no known human immunity, but there is for flu, which contributes to a lower rate there.

All-in-all, corona appears more and more to be a serious, but temporary issue, well-met by good hygiene and common sense. Hopefully in 2 years we will have a vaccine and a build-up in human immunity from this spreading of virus.

Common sense is lacking in the US government response. Trump tried to lay blame for the poor initial US response on rule changes put in place by Obama. Already, that’s been debunked as another untruth.

My biggest concern is governments not properly reporting what is going on in their countries. While one would expect some dissembling from the Chinese, Russians and some middle Eastern nations, the posturing from the Trump administrations scares the ____ out of me. This is the time for science and rational action, not posturing and calling coronavirus a hoax. The last thing we need are for chess players, especially scholastic chess players to become ill. For now, I’m avoiding crowded venues, washing hands whenever needed and considering parts of my body to touch other than my mouth…

It will take some time for the depth and impact of this to become known. In the meantime, FIDE is advising competitors in it’s events to not shake hands, hug or kiss hello to anyone. There are players headed to the Candidates’ tournament who are quarantined presently in Moscow. Precautions are being taken to screen players heading to the seniors team event, but it would not surprise me to see this event cancelled.

Stay calm and listen to respected public health officials like Dr. Anthony Fauci.
theguardian.com/commentisfr … -president

If I have this statistic correct - none of the deaths have been under age 30.

[kevin_bachler]

@nolan

The mortality rate for flu is more like 0.1% according to the CDC.

The mortality rate for coronavirus is still unclear, for multiple reasons, such as under-reporting of cases or a lack of testing.

The reference was to world-wide cases as reported by WHO. Worldwide currently Covid-19 is 3.4%, and flu is a little under 1%. You are correct that there are numerous reasons the Covid-19 rate could drop.

We also note that Covid-19 has a much lower rate than SARS (10%) and MERS(35%) although it infects many more people.

[Michael_A_Murray]

Just got word. The 2020 Reykjavik Open has been cancelled. I think I’ll put this info in a separate post also.