Many or most of us plan our big tournaments far in advance, trying to lock in a good price on plane tickets, getting hotel or airbnb reservations before they fill up, etc. Anybody weighing the new health risks of travel and tournament against eating some non-refundable expenses?
Broadening the topic, a bit – what about the overall effect that the uncertainty has on attendance at large events? I’m old enough to remember the gas supply crisis of early 1974, and the devastating effect it had on tournament attendance. If I remember correctly, the USCF made some allowances for organizers to pay out less than the guaranteed prizes. (Of course, this was a few years before the introduction of Grand Prix events.)
So far there doesn’t appear to be much impact on registrations for spring nationals. The HS is well ahead of last year’s record pace, the JHS is a bit behind last year’s pace and the Elementary is slightly ahead of last year’s pace. Those trends may have more to do with when price cutoff dates are than anything else. And location seems to be a major predictor of turnout for the HS and JHS, not so much for the Elementary.
But it is something I’m sure the office is monitoring.
A doctor told me that it is difficult to avoid illness if you are in venue with a high concentration of people, like a convention, sporting competition, subway, or a school. The best you can do is observe proper hygiene. Wash your hands with some frequency. Carry a little bottle of Purell. Try to keep to yourself. This virus tends to have a greater impact on older people who have other health issues. If it starts to have an effect on kids, then that is a whole new problem. The doc told me that it will take a few months to see what pans out. A vaccine will take more than a year to be tested and produced in any quantity. As for masks, he told me that they were not very effective, except for a specific type that health workers use, and even they can get sick in spite of their use. He suggested getting out into the fresh air and not stay cooped up indoors. Not great advice for chess, but it is probably better not to live in fear of the unknown.
From British Columbia’s BC Bulletin about the just completed BC Open:
So what was the turnout in previous years?
Update: It looks like the turnout in 2019 was 185, which ‘easily exceeded’ the record turnout from 2018, though I can’t find a 2018 report.
A 20% withdrawal rate is significant.
Turnout was still good - second highest in BC history.
And for those that plan to travel during the Summer months, I read somewhere that the higher the temperature, the less effective the Corona Virus is. If the temperature gets to 86 degrees Fahrenheit, the heat in affect, will basically suffocate the virus itself. These next few months will be the real test, and I would think the Summer travel plans would be a go for most, especially the World Open and US Open. As they say, time will tell.
Respectfully Submitted,
David A. Cole, USCF Life Member, Franklin, NJ
The number of cases in Iran, Iraq and parts of Africa where it is already quite warm seem to suggest that this virus isn’t impacted by heat much. However, it is generally the case that people are healthier in warmer weather, so that might impact both susceptibility and severity.
While there is great concern about Africa’s ability to deal with Covid-19, there are actually very few cases there at this point. The same appears true of Iraq. Iran has a very large number of cases – which makes me wonder what China has been shipping to Iran.
Some of the other Persian/oil-producing states also seem a bit higher.
There may be very few cases because of a shortage of testing kits and lab facilities. That’s probably happening in the USA as well, and you can thank the FDA’s cumbersome approval process for it.
With the Reykjavik Open coming up, and Iceland heavily dependent on tourism, this seems startling, although just a contingency at this point: icelandmonitor.mbl.is/news/news … an_option/
The number of non-China exposure cases is rising in the US at present. That is expected to continue. A friend of a friend whao was to fly today from NYC to Indonesia had her flight cancelled and has been put on a differently routed slight tomorrow morning. This is undoubtedly related to her going to Southeast Asia. While none of us have a crystal ball, absent the sudden appearance of a cure (people tried drinking Corona, but it didn’t prove to be effective), I would expect major disruptions to air transit by Summer. Personally, I will hold off on any over the board tournaments with large groups until the situation is more certain.
Since you asked, I’m going to Prague on Tuesday for the World Senior Team. I and my three teammates are crossing our fingers and hoping the event doesn’t get canceled. There haven’t been any cases in the Czech republic – yet – at least not any that have got past the incubation period. My daughter, the nurse, is in full panic mode and seriously told me to back out. But as my niece, the microbiologist, pointed out, although it is unlikely that I would actually catch anything dangerous (other than cold or flu), a more serious possibility is that I would get quarantined, either on the way there or on the way back, because of some other airplane passenger or some other tournament player.
And this year’s Dubai Open has been canceled due to the Corona Virus crisis. It would not surprise me if more International tournaments are canceled this year due to the Corona Virus.
Respectfully Submitted,
David A. Cole, USCF Life Member, Franklin, NJ
Isle of Man was cancelled for this year, but that had nothing to do with the virus. Iceland tourism may be effected by this issue, but I do not think the chess tournament will be heavily effected. As I recall last year the event reach it maximum number of players [limited playing space] about a month before the event.
Larry S. Cohen
It will certainly be impacted if the host nation closes its borders.
It will be interesting to see if the Candidates Tournament is affected.
It appears that infection rates are much lower with children than with adults. It also appears that the concentration of viruses adds to the infection issue.
Currently, the mortality rate for flu is a little under 1%. The current mortality rate for coronavirus is about 3.5%. It doesn’t spread as easily, but it appears to bring greater illness.
However, scientists are quick to point out that the 3.5% reflects all the early Chinese deaths before any precautions were being taken or treatment offered. Further, many cases of corona are so weak that people don’t even know they have it, with possibly even no symptoms. Thus, the denominator could be much much larger, and that rate could be much closer to 1%. Additionally, at this point there’s no known human immunity, but there is for flu, which contributes to a lower rate there.
All-in-all, corona appears more and more to be a serious, but temporary issue, well-met by good hygiene and common sense. Hopefully in 2 years we will have a vaccine and a build-up in human immunity from this spreading of virus.
Scaring ourselves to death . . .