I’m pretty sure “look ahead” in 29E6a was never intended to mean “look ahead to possible pairings in the next round” !!
Rather, it simply means, for example, that when deciding on the top pairing(s) in a score group, it is wise first to check for possible consequences further down in the group.
Suppose, going into round 3, we have a 6-player score group as follows:
- wb
- bw
- wb
- wb
- bw
- wb
The “raw” (untransposed) pairings would be:
- (wb) vs 4. (wb) – (1. gets white)
- (bw) vs 5. (bw) – (5. gets white)
- (wb) vs 6. (wb) – (3. gets white)
The inexperienced TD, probably using pairing cards (and possibly even making the beginner’s mistake of writing down each pairing as it is made), would immediately notice the color problem in the first pairing, and make a switch between the first and second pairings:
- (wb) vs 5. (bw) – (1. gets white)
- (bw) vs 4. (wb) – (4. gets white)
- (wb) vs 6. (wb) – (3. gets white)
This conveniently solves the color problem in the second pairing as well. But now the TD notices that 3. has already played 6. Being too proud (or finding it too inconvenient) to undo his top-down pairing, he now makes an additional transposition, this time between the second and third pairings, and ends up with:
- (wb) vs 5. (bw) – (1. gets white)
- (bw) vs 6. (wb) – (6. gets white)
- (wb) vs 4. (wb) – (3. gets white)
If, instead, the TD had done a little looking ahead, he would have come up with a simpler solution – simply switch between the second and third pairings to begin with:
- (wb) vs 4. (wb) – (1. gets white)
- (bw) vs 6. (wb) – (6. gets white)
- (wb) vs 5. (bw) – (3. gets white)
In general I don’t like such “anticipatory color assignments”. There is simply too much chance that something will go wrong. All it would take would be a single upset, or even a single draw.
In the case of your tournament, you probably have several 2-pointers, some of whom will soon have 2.5 or 3.0 and may end up being paired against the 2.5 and/or 3.0 you already have. Thus, I don’t see how it’s possible to accurately predict anything.
A better idea would to be aware of the “small tournament effect”. If the colors work too well in the early rounds, you will be dividing the players into two camps, those who started with white and those who started with black, and you will have made primarily inter-camp pairings. With a small tournament, suitable inter-camp pairings will become scarce in the later rounds, forcing you to resort to intra-camp pairings, where there will be color problems.
The moral: In a small tournament, don’t make the colors work too well. One way to do this is to transpose only to equalize colors, and not merely to alternate colors. In a pairing program you can change the alternation limit from 80 to 0, while leaving the equalization limit unchanged at 200.
Is 26 players a small tournament? I usually think of a small tournament as consisting of 20 players or fewer. But with six rounds, it’s not too much of a stretch to consider even a 30-player event to be “small”.
So I agree with Jeff – go with the Swis-Sys pairings. Also keep in mind that, in a 6-round event, it is virtually impossible to avoid 4 blacks or 4 whites for at least a few players.
Bill Smythe