Nakamura was lucky today. Stubborn fighters tend to be lucky.
Fischer, Topalov, and Alekhine were among the players who reached their prime at a relatively late age. Nakamura turns 26 in December. I think he has a far better chance to become world champ than Caruana, as Nakamura’s overpressing is an easier error to eliminate (Fischer had to correct this tendency, too).
If Nakamura gets into this cycle (unlikely, agreed), he could win it.
Nakamura won. Gelfand lost. Nakamura in first place: 3 rounds to go.
Over the decades, how many games have strong players lost to the berserk can-opener h4-h5?
Bobby J. had never beaten Boris before Iceland.
Hikaru has never beaten Magnus.
I think both knew what they were doing. 
All the best, Joe
Yes, no doubt Bobby lost to Boris several times on purpose and then published “A Bust to the King’s Gambit” in American Chess Quarterly in order to camouflage his insidious scheme of spotting Spassky 2-0 in the world championship before roaring back to defeat him. 
You can phrase any fact to meet any perspective. Did Bobby J. press the envelop too hard vs Boris before Iceland? Yes. So has Hikaru vs Magnus? Yes.
Clearly, Bobby J. was having emotional stress just before Iceland. His challenge was unpresidented (sp?) in chess history, in the worldwide scope of eyes watching those chess games for more reasons than just chess.
In 1971, I played in the National HS in NYC. Bobby J. just defeated Taimanov, and was on his way to Denver to play Larsen. He happened to be staying in the same hotel. When he walked innocently into the main tournament room, every boy at every board, stopped his clock, and they all swarmed on Bobby J. The TDs had to protect Bobby J. and get him out of the room.
That had to be the first time he was exposed to how popular and important he was.
(Oh, yes. The first board yelled to keep quiet. That was future GM Christiansen, and future IM Gruchacz.)
These four guys look at a chess game very differently than us. Each of them were/are planning for the World Championship. Magnus did not have to beat Aronian in the last round in St. Louis.
Magnus: #1 rated
Aronian: #2 rated
Magnus demonstrated, “Yea. That’s right. I’m #1. Don’t forget it”.
All the best, Joe
I thought you said that good players are quiet. And if you’re not good, why would we trust your analysis?
OH! I forgot. I’ve been away from the forums a few months. I promised publicly NEVER to respond to kbachler. Let me renew that.
If anyone is interested, I did put on Facebook, my first win against an International Grandmaster. A few GMs praised the quality of the game. I also listed a win against an International Master (not the first time), who since then, has earned two GM norms. Again, some praise. (I wonder how many here have done the same during this year, particularly with the initials K. B.?) Not too bad at sixty…
Have a good day!
All the best, Joe
Alas Herr Nakamura succumbed to Herr Gelfand today 
Caruana is now tied for the lead with Gelfand. If Caruana gets clear 1st, I believe he will grab 2nd place in the Grand Prix and will be in the Candidates next year.
Update:
Candidates Place 7 (Grand Prix) - Mamedjarov
Candidates Place 8 (Organizer’s Wildcard) - Kozlodoi organizers (Danailov) let it be known that they would choose between Caruana and Nakamura. However, then they withdrew their bid, and the Candidates Tournament has now been awarded to Khanty-Mansiysk. The organizer is Russian Chess Federation. No official word as to the wildcard selection, but it’s expected that it will be either Grischuk or Svidler (Russian Champion).