Olympiad round 10

The Olympiad tie break rules are here (see rule 14). The game points are listed in the “TB3” column of the standings.

G. Tie Breaking
14.
The position of teams that finish with the same number of match points shall be determined by application of the following tie-breaking procedures in sequence, proceeding from (a) to (b) to (c) to the extent required:

a)
the sum of Sonneborn-Berger points, which are calculated as follows:
match points of each opponent, excluding the opponent who scored the lowest number of match points, multiplied by the number of game points achieved against this opponent;

b)
by the number of the game points scored;

c)
by the sum of the match points of all the teams opponents, excluding the lowest one.
For tie-break purposes a bye or an unplayed match - if the opponent team does not appear on time – are counted as a drawn match against a virtual opponent. At the start of the round this virtual opponent has the same number of match points and game points as the team present. Then the result of the unplayed match is added (1 matchpoint and 4 gamepoints in case of an unplayed win, 1 matchpoint and 2 gamepoints in case of a bye, 0 matchpoints and 0 gamepoints in case of an unplayed loss) and finally for each subsequent round 1 matchpoint and 2 gamepoints.

Take the following with multiple grains of salt. They look right to me but I may easily be overlooking something.

US leads Ukraine 344.5 to 328.0 for the (a) tie-break (Ukraine is 16.5 back). A US 2.5-1.5 win would add 37.5 while a Ukraine 4-0 win would add 60. That would leave Ukraine with a 388 vs 382 lead before seeing the results of the other matches (actually only a four point lead because the US would add 5 for the Ukraine win while Ukraine would add only 3 for the US win). With both winning and Ukraine gaining even one extra game point in the final round (compared to the US), Ukraine would make up 15 of the 16.5 points Ukraine is behind (and lose two due to both wins), leaving the gold medal determination up to how well their earlier opponents did.
If US and Ukraine have the same games scores while winning their final match then Ukraine has a difficult 18.5 points to make up.

Ukraine picks up an extra two points if the Czechs win and an extra point each if Georgia or Russia win. The US picks up an extra two points if India wins.
For the following wins Ukraine can add the points in parenthesis: Jordan (8 - but not in tie-break a); Albania (7); Germany (5); China (5).
For the following wins the US can add the points in parenthesis: Andorra (8 - but not in tie-break a); Scotland (7); Argentina (6); Serbia (6); Norway (6). The US is playing Canada, which Ukraine beat earlier (2.5-1.5), so a win by the US would eliminate Ukraine gaining points from a Canadian win.

India is playing Norway and US tie-breaks are best if Norway wins.
If the Ukraine and the US have identical winning round 11 game scores then from other teams Ukraine could still gain 19 more points than the US to finish 0.5 ahead. If any of the other 10 matches goes differently then it looks like the US gets it.
Conversely, if the other matches work out well for the US then the US could gain 25 points, with an average swing being about 3 points and making it pretty much a dead heat with a US 2.5-1.5 win and a Ukraine 4-0 win.

wow those tiebreaks are insanely complicated. Thanks to all who responded.

Trial by ordeal might be easier. Fire, water, or battle?

If the US wins the match 2½-1½ against Canada and loses on tiebreaks, then oh well. If Ukraine wins ten (!!) matches without Ivanchuk (and I think they will), that’s one of the great runs in Olympiad history.

I hope Randy is a better prognosticator than I am…