Well, there wasn’t really a round 8 thread. So, I thought I’d start a round 9 thread with some speculation about pairings on the top tables for the men’s side.
First, based on eyeballing the results, I have these as the top teams in tiebreak order after round 8.
RUS (7 match wins, 0 losses, 15 match points, 21.5 game points)
CHN (6, 1, 13, 22.5)
PHI (6, 1, 13, 22.5)
ARM (6, 1, 13, 21)
USA (5, 0, 13, 23.5)
GER (5, 0, 13, 22.5)
I’m thinking these will be the pairings for round 9 (white team listed first)…
Table 1: PHI - RUS
Table 2: USA - CHN
Table 3: GER - ARM
If these are right…that’s a rather tall order facing the US team. But hey, that’s what you want, right? It’s a good thing Nakamura was able to rest today, because we’ll really need him to step up against Wang Hao (or whatever other super-GM he faces).
I think I have the pairing rules order wrong, actually. The results page on the Olympiad website lists teams in the order I posted previously. However, FIDE Rule D.II.02.C.10 seems to specify that match points are first, then game points, then average rating.
Anyway…the pairings are up, so no more speculation!
MEN:
Table 1: USA - Russia
WOMEN:
Table 4: USA - Ukraine
Well…the good news for the men is, if they can somehow find a way to 2.5 points, they’re suddenly leading the Olympiad with two rounds to go. The bad news is that Russia’s really, really good.
Now I’m going to be glued to the tournament hall videoing Downloaded the tracks for Eye of the Tiger and Burning Heart to add as the soundtrack for video’s and pictures…
Women need a win to climb back into medal contention. With a draw they may still have a shot. A loss may close the door unless they were to get a lot of help in later rounds.
Yippee - I actually got the top pairing right (even a blind squirrel finds an acorn every once in awhile, right?). Yeah, Russia is loaded - 5 players over 2700, with two nearly 2800. If they offered us a package of 4 draws . . . I’d take it in a heartbeat.
Whoever has bottom board for the US Men’s team is going to have their hands really full.
The matchups I’m seeing are going to be:
Nakamura - Kramnik
Kamsky - Grischuk (though I’d love to see Naka and Kamsky switch spots here for this match-up)
Karjakin - Onischuk
Robson - Tomashevsky / Jakovenko
Neither Ray nor Var have enough global experience to the level the 4th board Russian players do. I’d give it to Ray because he’s been steadier.
For the Women’s, Goletiani has to sit out. I like Rusa alot but she’s just not in form to take on Zhukova (Grischuk’s wife). But regardless the entire US Women’s team will have a very hard matchup. The bottom boards twice as much.
IMHO, you’ve got to play Nakamura/Kamsky/Onishuk at the top to have any chance. As for fourth board, I think that is a matter of who is feeling better and matches up better. My guess is they sit Robson.
Complicating matters further is that Krush has black, probably against IM Muzychuk, so it will be asking a lot for her to win. Zatonskih has a similar issue on board 1 against GM Lahno. And, to top it all off, the top two boards are where the US is actually close to equal in rating. Ukraine’s alternate is a 2400-rated IM, so you can get an idea of the test the women are facing.
RE: Package draw offer from RUS…I wouldn’t think they’d offer it with two rounds still to play, and with a pronounced advantage on board 4, regardless of who the US puts up. But yeah, if John Donaldson gets that offer, I imagine he’ll jump on it and let the team take its chances in rounds 10 and 11.
RE: Sitting out…I agree with Sevan on the women’s side. Goletiani hasn’t shown much form this event, so she should get the day off tomorrow. As for the men’s side, I agree with Randy. Robson seems to be more enterprising and energized than Akobian this week.
This isn’t going to end a draw. It’s going to come down to our boards 3 and 4, and I think more 4 than 3 obviously. Onischuk is more than capable of handling himself.
The US would still be 2 match points behind Russia, so that won’t work. And Russia probably has no intention of just handing over a point for nothing. So, you must be joking, right?
Well, yes he was. But we would still be happy with a drawn match. The US team with be rated lower at every board and will be exceeded in international experience at most boards. So to get out of this one even would be an accomplishment. IT would set the US up nicely for medal contention. To win the match would take a serious error - probably 2 - on the part of the Russian team and they are not apt to make many of those.
I don’t think anyone seriously considers that Russia would offer a package draw at this stage of the tournament to the US. Having said that, the goal coming into this tournament was to get a medal. The US men are currently tied for second on match points, and have more game points than any other team. Under those circumstances, and with the significant edge Russia enjoys on board 4 in this match, a drawn match with the clear tournament leader would have to be considered a success.
Yes, our top two are plenty capable - ranked numbers 5 and 14 on the FIDE September 2012 list. The problem is that the Russian team includes those ranked numbers 3, 7, 11, 21 and 25. By contrast, our third, Onishuk, is ranked 80th.
It’s pretty amazing that Russia can assemble this powerful a team (on paper, at least) and leave behind 10th ranked Morozovich (2769) and 13th ranked Svidler (2747). It’s notable that they could have also chosen players ranked 28th, 37th, 42nd, 44th, 47th, 54th, 70th, 71st, 73rd and 79th in the world - all ranked higher than our 3rd board.
All told, Russia has 23 of the top 100 rated players on the latest list - by contrast, the US has 4.
So, I thought I’d start a round 9 thread with some speculation about pairings on the top tables for the men’s side.
Downloaded the tracks for Eye of the Tiger and Burning Heart to add as the soundtrack for video’s and pictures…