I went back and recreated the full tournament wallchart by hand, just as an exercise. (Slow work day.) I wanted to see exactly what the standings and colors (as close as possible, anyway) looked like after three rounds. (I’m assuming I found the right crosstable in MSA; if I didn’t, I just wasted about 45 minutes.
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It appears that SwissSys used top-down pairings for this, and simply did not examine the possibility of changing the pairing on board 1 once it was set. Here’s the tournament wallchart (colors included; some color assignments are deduced). Each round is listed by result, color, and pairing number of opponent. My advance apologies for lack of formatting.
It’s worth noting that the fourth round game on board 5 actually was recorded as a forfeit win. However, I don’t think these two players would have affected the higher boards.
Player 1: +b6, +w4, =b2, -b5
Player 2: +w7, +b3, =w1, +b4
Player 3: +b8, -w2, -w5, +b7
Player 4: +w9, -b1, -w6, -w2
Player 5: +b10, +w6, +b3, +w1
Player 6: -w1, -b5, +b4, -w8
Player 7: -b2, +w10, +b9, -w3
Player 8: -w3, -b9, +w10, -b6
Player 9: -b4, +w8, -w7, +b10
Player 10: -w5, -b7, -b8, -w9
It appears the “natural” (ignoring all possible restrictions) last round pairings, in descending board order, are: 5 - 1, 2 - 7, 6 - 3, 4 - 8, and 10 - 9. Of these pairings, the only one that doesn’t work is 2 - 7, as they’ve already played. So, my instinct is to switch players 1 and 2 (which also improves those two players’ color allocation), and leave the rest of the pairings alone. The two players I want to switch are close in rating, so that isn’t an issue.
Instead, the program cranked out the following pairings: 5 - 1, 4 - 2, 7 - 3, 6 - 8, 10 - 9.
This looks like a case where SwissSys didn’t do an optimal job. If I had to guess, I’d say the program simply pulled players 1 and 5 out of the refinement process entirely, and then proceeded to re-pair the rest of the tournament. (If you do that here, the actual last round pairings on boards 2 through 5 appear to make sense. For example, if you simply delete players 1 and 5, the next pairing is 7 - 2, which is illegal. So, 3 - 2 then…which is also illegal. Soooo…4 - 2, which is what happened.)
When I use any pairing program, I manually review the top several pairings before posting them during the last few rounds. I’ve actually switched late-round pairings at large tournaments using both WinTD and SwissSys because I felt the pairing I wanted to make was more logical. In a small tournament, this is even more necessary.