Here, have a topic for discussing the 2013 Candidates’ Tournament, which starts today in London.
(Happy, Boyd?)
Strictly speaking, this is a candidates’ tournament, I believe. (Always a new nit to pick… 
)
Now for some patzer prognostication. This should be fun. Carlsen’s never a bad bet in a round-robin tournament, and Kramnik seems to be in great form now as well. One cannot discount Aronian, either, but I just don’t see him winning this event.
Among the other players, I have a particular interest in two: Gelfand and Ivanchuk.
In terms of opening preparation, I’ve always been a big fan of Gelfand. I think of Gelfand as almost the chess equivalent of Nick Saban - if you give Saban six weeks to game-plan against an opponent, take his team to win and cover the spread. Gelfand’s performance in the last WC cycle (if he doesn’t blowuptuate in game 8 against Anand, he could well be the WC now) should give him confidence as well.
I’m also curious as to which Ivanchuk will show up (and whether the same one will stay for the entire tournament). If it’s “bad Chukky”, he might not score 4 points. If it’s “good Chukky”, watch out.
I’m willing to bet a breakfast at the Madison US Open that Carlsen will win this tournament by at least a full point. (You have to show up to collect.) Why? Carlsen is the only player in this tournament who has defeated me. (I lost to him in an ICC simul.) I have an even record against the others. (Er, okay, that would be no record against the others.)
Carlsen and Aronian draw in 31. I bet their final position becomes known as the Grandmasters’ Valentine.
Svidler-Kramnik is a draw as well. I would have played a little longer as Svidler; I thought he would be risking very little to try and push Kramnik a bit. But, then again, that’s why my FIDE rating starts with a “1”. 
So far it’s a draw. It seems that this might be the case for the majority of the rest of the tournament. Whoever can get at least 1 win will probably win the entire tournament!
I smell tie-breaks 
Aronian ground down Gelfand rather convincingly today, while Radjabov prevailed over Ivanchuck. Carlson-Kramnik appeared dead even by move 10 and was agreed drawn after move 30.
Apparently Ivanchuk lost on time in an advantageous position imo. I think Svidler had an edge had he played 28…Qxd1
Houdini rated Radjabov-Ivanchuk at +2.92 when Ivanchuk lost on time, after pretty much getting crunched after move 17. After Radjubov plays 35. Qxc6, his passed a, c and e pawns are too much for Ivanchuk’s two rooks to handle – he has the material equivalent of Q + 5 pawns vs. 2 Rooks + 2 pawns.
Ivanchuk missed a very pretty draw on move 33: see http://en.chessbase.com/Home/TabId/211/PostId/4009172/candidates-r2–radjabov-aronian-draw-first-blood-170313.aspx
Yes, but he was down to seconds on his clock for many moves. Similar thing happened today. Maybe Ivanchuk will lose all games on time—where he plays better when his opponents try to flag him with blitz tactics. This is where not having an increment before move 60 comes into play. Of course there is also the Chucky factor.
It seems like this tournament will be decided by the world’s top two players on who gets to challenge Anand.
Carlsen may be busted! (Game finishing right now.) Amazing day…
And back to probably drawn again, per Houdini kibitzing (after 74…Rc4+).
But 76.Ra4? (thematically suspect: ask Dr. Tarrasch) should have been met by 76…e4+! and not 77.Rxe4? Rc3+! winning.
Black is now winning: Grigoriev combined method. (Frontal attack doesn’t work because rook checks followed by Re1 are met by …Re8!)
Ahh: Black didn’t even need the combined method because of 90…Ke3! (idea 91.Re1+ Kf2)
Applause to Chukky!!!
I watched the live video of the Aronian – Kramnik game and saw Kramnik hover his hand over his king on move 57 and then he pulled it back to reconsider. He then played the winning move 57…g5.
The only reason he could have had for a king move at that point would have been to play 57…Kd4. However, that would have thrown away the win after 58.Kd6 Kxc4 59.Ke5. Of course, Kramnik must have seen this and that’s why he hesitated with his hand over his king.
At the press conference later, while discussing Aronian’s blunder 50.g6?? (which Aronian played instantly), Kramnik said the win from that point was “actually not so difficult.” Judging from how close Kramnik came to almost blundering away his simple win when his hand hovered over his king on move 57, his post-game comment about an “actually not so difficult” win doesn’t tell the whole story. His hovering hand does.
You really can’t believe everything players say after the game. The winners generally claim they had everything under control, and the losers claim that they had a good game and were probably winning.
Tied!!!
The last sentence was a bit idiotic, as it’s lost no matter what, and Carlsen had specific cheapos in mind (as he demonstrated in the post-mortem)
Another day with truly wonderful fighting games