2016 Candidates handicapping

In its typical last-minute fashion, FIDE is bidding out an eight-player double round-robin Candidates Tournament to choose Carlsen’s challenger next March. Summary on Wikipedia.

Three players have clinched a spot: Anand (as loser of the 2014 championship match), and our own Caruana and Nakamura (as Grand Prix qualifiers). Two other players will clinch the two World Cup spots shortly: the winner of the Giri-Svidler and Karjakin-Eljanov semifinals.

The top two rated players not otherwise qualified (based on average of monthly FIDE ratings) get an invite, too. Topalov and Giri have virtually clinched spots anyway based on their wide lead in 2015 average rating (check my math :wink: ). October 2015 is of course projected and November & December are projected based on October. One has to win a lot of ELO in a hurry to move one’s average rating for the entire year by two points.

If Giri beats Svidler, then either Kramnik or Grischuk is most likely to take the third spot.

[size=55] Topalov Giri Kramnik Grischuk Aronian So Ding Liren Dec 2,802.5 2,795.7 2,779.2 2,751.9 2,784.1 2,761.7 2,780.6 Nov 2,802.5 2,795.7 2,779.2 2,751.9 2,784.1 2,761.7 2,780.6 Oct 2,802.5 2,795.7 2,779.2 2,751.9 2,784.1 2,761.7 2,780.6 Sep 2,816.0 2,793.0 2,777.0 2,771.0 2,765.0 2,773.0 2,782.0 Aug 2,816.0 2,793.0 2,777.0 2,771.0 2,765.0 2,779.0 2,770.0 Jul 2,816.0 2,791.0 2,783.0 2,771.0 2,765.0 2,780.0 2,749.0 Jun 2,798.0 2,773.0 2,783.0 2,781.0 2,780.0 2,778.0 2,749.0 May 2,798.0 2,776.0 2,777.0 2,780.0 2,776.0 2,778.0 2,757.0 Apr 2,798.0 2,790.0 2,783.0 2,794.0 2,770.0 2,788.0 2,751.0 Mar 2,798.0 2,790.0 2,783.0 2,794.0 2,770.0 2,788.0 2,755.0 Feb 2,800.0 2,797.0 2,783.0 2,810.0 2,777.0 2,788.0 2,755.0 Jan 2,800.0 2,784.0 2,783.0 2,810.0 2,797.0 2,762.0 2,732.0 Proj avg 2,803.958 2,789.508 2,780.550 2,778.142 2,776.442 2,774.925 2,761.817[/size]

Here’s a summary with less eyestrain.

Topalov
2,803.958

Giri
2,789.508

Kramnik
2,780.550

Grischuk
2,778.142

Aronian
2,776.442

So
2,774.925

Ding Liren
2,761.817

Soap-opera complications: if the event is held in Russia, is it possible that Topalov would choose not to play? (He’s made noises about this issue several times.) And Kramnik might turn down an invitation if Grischuk is next in line.

If Svidler beats Giri, we could be looking at a Candidates tournament without Kramnik, Aronian, or Grischuk. There is an organizer’s spot to be filled.

My pipe dream: it would be nice to have the event in the USA with Aronian or Ding Liren as the wild card. (Great players like Wesley So and Wei Yi are not quite ready to contend for the world championship; of course, that was also the 1958 conventional wisdom about Fischer.)

Hadn’t heard that said about Fischer before