A few years ago it seemed likely that two, if not three, US players would have good chances of playing a world championship match in the early 2020s.
But after Latvia announced its Covid lockdown this week, Hikaru Nakamura said he wouldn’t play in the Grand Swiss starting there next week.
That doesn’t leave him with an obvious path to the 2022 Candidates tournament.
One wonders if he has given up on becoming world champion.
Fabiano Caruana will apparently play in Latvia. He would also be invited to another qualifying event, the 2022 Grand Prix next spring, so he has two ways to get into the Candidates.
Wesley So’s path to the Candidates is unclear. He is not on the list of Grand Swiss players. He would get a seed in the Grand Prix based on rating.
Right now the other American with the best chance to reach the Candidates is Sam Shankland, who will probably play in the Grand Prix.
Caruana and So are legitimate World Championship contenders. Shankland is not. You need to be near 2800 FIDE to have a realistic shot at playing Carlsen, and Sam is barely over 2700 (2708.4 on the live list.) Now 30 years old, it’s not realistic to expect Shankland to make it significantly higher than where he is now.
You have to be in it to win it.
My point is that Nakamura isn’t in any lane in the next world championship cycle.
One American is seeded in the cycle, Shankland in the Grand Prix.
Caruana might also be seeded if he finishes first or second in Latvia.
But he bombed out in the World Cup – while Shankland made the quarterfinals.
Yes, you have to be in it to win it, but you also have to have the talent, which Shankland doesn’t. Nakamura was 2800 once, but that was six years ago, and his play has fallen off since then. He’s down to 2736 now (#19 in the world), and he’s about six weeks from his 34th birthday. Could he get back to the 2800 level? Maybe, but the odds are against it. Even if he had a lane to the World Championship it seems unlikely that he could get there.
I think Aronian has chances, or do I need to wait until it becomes official to post in this thread?
Alex Relyea
It seems weird when we sub-2000 players whine about how weak a 2700 player is.
Bill Smythe
I’m not saying Shankland is a weak player. He’s an elite GM, and a great player by any objective measure. But we’re talking here not about if he’s strong or weak, but whether he’s in the discussion for being a serious World Championship contender, and IMO Sam simply is not. If you think he is, what leads you to that conclusion?
There are only two Americans strong enough to be legitimate contenders for the 2022 World Championship cycle: Fabiano Caruana and Wesley So. Three Americans appear disinterested and have declined invitations to the Grand Swiss: So, Leinier Dominguez and Hikaru Nakamura. I guess that means everyone will be watching Caruana and Sam Shankland.
Michael Aigner
I note that Aronian is the number 2 seed (behind Caruana) in the Grand Swiss. Why is he considered to not be a factor? Too old?
Alex Relyea
I had the same thought. Maybe people have not fully processed his transfer yet – or maybe it isn’t “official” yet? According to Wikipedia, he announced the transfer in February and came here in September, but 2700chess.com is still showing an Armenian flag next to his name. What needs to happen to make him officially an American player? And has it happened yet?
As for ability/strength, he is currently rated 5th in the world, slightly behind Caruana but ahead of So. He’s “old” by chess standards, but Gelfand was even older when he played a championship match against Anand (and held his own until the rapid tiebreaker) – and then there was Korchnoi. So age needn’t be an obstacle here. He’s definitely still a contender in my book.
The FIDE rules for transfer of a player’s registration between two federations may be found here. I’m not absolutely certain, but it seems to me that Aronian must wait for two years from either Feb. or Sept. 2021 and pay either 3500 or 5000 Euros to FIDE and another 50,000 Euros to the Armenian Chess federation.
I understand the confusion. This page https://ratings.fide.com/transfers.phtml makes it clear that it is an either/or situation. That is he can pay the 55,000 Euros or wait to compete under the USA flag.
However I don’t see his name on the linked list. Surely all the reports don’t have him confused with GM Akopian who is well along the transfer process.
It is not clear to me whether Aronian belongs on the list intended by GM Soltis.
Alex Relyea
I ain’t so sure of that. Mr Shankland should be receiving a few more invites to “elite” tournaments. I think the only way to get to 2800 from the lowly 2700s (lol) is to play the elite events. Prove him wrong, Sam!
…scot…
I would like nothing better than to be proven wrong here. I hope Sam can get up to the World Championship level, but how many examples are there of guys who have jumped up from around 2700 to near 2800 only after their 30th birthdays?
Only five Americans will play in the Grand Swiss: top seed Fabiano Caruana, Jeffery Xiong, Sam Sevian, Dariusz Swiercz and Hans Niemann. Only Niemann, who received a wild card, starts in the bottom half of the field. Apparently Wesley So, Leinier Dominguez, Hikaru Nakamura and Sam Shankland all declined to participate for various reasons. No American women appear on the registration list for the concurrent Women’s Grand Swiss.
I do not yet consider second seed Levon Aronian as an American, since he remains registered under Armenia and may need to wait until 2023 for the transfer to become official.
Fans of Sam Shankland will be pleased to hear that Tata Steel Chess (Wijk aan Zee) just announced his participation in January 2022.
Michael Aigner
Fans of Sam Shankland will be pleased to hear that Tata Steel Chess (Wijk aan Zee) just announced his participation in January 2022.
Michael Aigner
[/quote]
This will give Sam another chance to show he belongs with the big boys. In rating order the 13 participants announced so far are:
Carlsen
Caruana
Giri
Rapport
Mamedyarov
Duda
Karjakin
Esipenko
Dubov
Shankland
van Foreest
Grandelius
Pragnanandhaa
A 14th player will be named later.
And what score would he need to achieve for you to believe he belongs with the big boys (not that he can win a match with Carlson; that’s a much higher standard)? Would 50% do it?
I’ll be cheering for him regardless.
I’d like to see him significantly outperform his expected score, and since he is seeded 10th out of the 13 players a score of 50% would do that. He also would need to do it more than once. In order to be considered to be in the same company as Giri, Mamedyarov, Rapport, etc. you need to get your rating up to where theirs is, and that takes excellence over time.