Interesting historical perspective and analysis from Johnathan Speelman. Too bad WC matches these days are so short.
Mr. Lafferty is like me, wishing we could go back to the old days. It all seems so random nowadays. At least it is better than the Las Vegas KOs.
Alex Relyea
The longer I live, the more I see the wisdom of Willa Cather…
I’m just excited to see some fresh blood. Anything but Anand - Carlsen 3. I wonder if Carlsen will try to crack his QID, or just stick to 1. e4. Karjakin held strongly in all QID attempts in the candidates. Karjakin played a lot of stuff with white, so it’s hard to predict what we might see. Maybe some QGD.
Karjakin’s chances will improve if the championship is played in New York. If the match is manipulated to end up in Sochi or Moscow, there will be more pressure on him. The embarrassment of having the Russians and FIDE playing political games to “help” him to play on home soil will be an added burden.
With a short match, it is important to score first, like in hockey. Karjakin cannot afford to lose one of the first 4 games. He would then have to win two of the next eight, not an easy task against Carlsen who only needs a tie to keep the title. As ambitious as Carlsen is, I would expect him to try for 2-0 or 3-0, especially in the first half of the match and draw the rest. In the post match period, it will be interesting to see who was on each player’s team of helpers. They are usually secretive about that.
In a 12 game match, anything can happen. I wish it were 24 again, or at least 20. Carlsen should win, he seems unstoppable… The problem with these 12 game matches is, if a player wins 1 game, he can play for draws the rest of the way. With 20, that can’t happen (unless you’re Giri of course).
What magically happens in games 13 through 20 that the player with one win can’t successfully continue to play for draws? I ‘get’ it that the more games, the greater the chance that something unusual might happen, but I highly doubt a 12 game match would be decided by a single victory in game one followed by the victor playing for draws the rest of the games.
If the challenger wins the first game and then plays for draws, that is rather risky if the challenger wants to become champion. Not the best strategy in match play, IMO. That said, I would much rather see a 24 game match. IMO, that is more of a true test in that the variables of fatigue and, perhaps, having fired ones preparatory bolt might result in more interesting games in the last half or third of the match. My absolute preference is for a match with the winner the first to win six games, draws not counting. That isn’t going to happen due to the economics of chess today.
As an alternative, we could use the magic of ELO and simply declare the person witth the highest ELO rating to be world champion for two years with a specific set of tournaments counting toward rating points and the next award of a championship. That goes against longstanding tradition that the championship is decided by match play.
Seven months to go…anyone know where the match will be played and who the sponsors are? 
The World Championship has been, except for the FIDE play-down debacle(s), a match between 2 opponents, the champion and a challenger. So claiming the highest ELO player is the champion doesn’t work. After all, this is only the person with the highest rating and a champion is one who is normally victorious in a specific event or series of events, like playoffs and so forth.
The incongruity I find is that this latest challenger was determined in a double round robin event, with no match play involved. Karjakin is the winner of this double round robin event and hence the challenger for the upcoming championship match without playing any match to qualify him as the challenger.
Match play is definitely a different animal than a tournament venue. In a match there is the opportunity to figure out, during the match, play to better the opponent. There also is the fatigue factor. In a tournament, no 2 players will have the same experience of time in any but 2 games at the most. In the match the opponents have to suffer and survive through similar to identical over the board experiences.
Also, Karjakin now has no match experience in this run of his to the championship. If he would have qualified in a series of matches, as it used to be, he would have experienced the rhythm and feel of match play to better prepare him for the championship match.
I agree completely that there should be match play leading up to the WC match. The challenger should go through a process similar to what Fischer and he other challengers of that era went through.
Chances of Karjakin winning is 49%
Chances of Carlsen winning is 51%
But surely we do understand why that is now impossible in this new era – money. It is just impossible to find sponsors for a series of long matches that could have indeterminate lengths. And a Carlsen, Karjakian or Caruana would expect a large sum of cash to devote a year+ to a series of qualifying matches. The demise of the old system began in 1972 when Fischer helped make chess playing a viable career for those players not residing in a country where the government subsidized their top performers.
“It is what it is.” But it is still far better than the days when reigning World Champions would dictate their own terms and require a challenger to come forward with a sponsor to provide the prize money.
I’d take that bet taking Carlsen. I think the general consensus will be more like 60-40 Carlsen.
Karjakin is sacrificing a year of his life in order to play the world championship match. He has cancelled lucrative tournament opportunities in order to prepare. After all of the preparation and the stress of the match, he is likely to emerge as an entirely different player both in chess terms and in character. While he might break if he loses the match, more likely he will become a formidable obstacle to others seeking to win the title for the next few years. If he wins, he will become a national hero, with all of the plusses and minuses that entails.
Apparently he will face Carlsen at least once before the match. Also he will play in at least three events allegedly.