When I checked a few minutes ago it had reached 2510. Earlier this week it was at 1812.
The first price jump comes next week.
I’m going to guess 3200 registered through this coming Sunday and 5450 total.
You can stay about 10 miles out of town and pay around half or less of the Gaylord price. Lots of restaurants and grocery stores just off the beltway. Parking in the shopping mall lot next door is free and closer to the tournament venue than the valet lots.
Noticed a number of scholastic events were up about 10% this year. Increased numbers taking lessons, too. If this is a pattern, then the Supernationals might top 5700.
NYC and NYS Scholastics set records this year. As we are the leading travel state for scholastic chess in the nation, that is probably a good sign for Supernationals.
Most years the office receives several large batches of entries mailed just before the deadline, so the number could continue to go up significantly over the next few days.
I think this thread could handle a few other over/under predictions.
Early prop lines for Nashville 2013!
Number of names mangled at opening ceremony: 2
Number of names mangled at all closing ceremonies, combined: 450
Number of appeals to chief tournament director: 5
Number of double-wins awarded by chief tournament director: 0
Number of lost result slips, all sections combined: 2
Number of lost chess clocks: 100
Number of lost articles of clothing: 300
Number of lost shoes: 5
Number of lost cellphones: 20
I’ll take the over in the number of articles of clothing and shoes lost. The under in cell phones lost - kids are more attached to them these days because of the number of new apps.
Add:
Cases of alleged cheating by players 25
Actual cases of cheating by players 0
Lost children 15
Lost parents 60
Number of Advil, Alleve, Tylenol taken by TD staff 1500
Happy kids at the end of the event All of them
There are actually four chief TDs, not one (overall and three divisional). If all four are counted then, considering the people involved, I’ll go with the over on double-wins. If just the overall chief is counted then I’ll agree with zero.
I’ll also go with the over on appeals (definitely if counting all four chiefs).
I’ll guess lost results slips is right on the money, but if it was temporarily missing instead then I’d go with the over.
I’ll go with the over on lost chess clocks but the under if it also meant not recovered. The same for articles of clothing, shoes and cellphones.
I’ll go with the over on alleged cases (I’ve heard a touch move violation claim from a parent at floor level 100 feet from a board with other games in the way, and I’ve heard it claimed that a parent signaled that a child should lose a game to divert suspicion that the child was receiving signals).
If actual cases means by intention then it might be right (the nationals I’ve done seem to average around 0.5). If it includes cases caused by confusion over the rules then I’d definitely go with the over.
It looks like lost children and parents does not mean permanently (which has never happened at an event I’ve been at), so I’ll go with the over.
The painkillers would mean an average of 15 to 20 per TD, and many TDs wouldn’t take any, so I’ll go with the way under.
I’ll have to go with the under on happy kids because with over 5,000 there will likely be at least one that is not happy at the end.
Currently states without teams are MT, NH, ND, SD, VT, WY. There are players from AA, DC, EN (London), PR. It is a tall order, but it would be nice to actually get all 50 states having players in Nashville.
My home state of IL (287) has the second-most players pre-registered (way behind NY’s 765 of course) but GA (231) and TX (201) are both also over 200, with TN’s 198 leaving it prepared for a late surge that can take it into second.
I noticed the UK player in the K-3 Open (Joshua Altman, 2012 European Boys U-8 champion). That got my attention. I’m not steeped in scholastic rules, so someone please get me right if I’m wrong…but don’t you have to be a US/territories resident to play at the Spring Nationals?
I have nothing against Josh - I met him during the London Chess Classic. He is not only a good player, but also seems to be a very happy, well adjusted kid. He’d be a welcome addition to the tournament. But I’m pretty sure he lives in England, unless that’s changed since Christmas.
I’m guessing that Mr. Altman has dual UK/US citizenship, which would make him eligible to play if my understanding of SR 12.2.2 is accurate. If that’s not the case, then I have no idea how he qualifies.