We are currently almost seven weeks out from Supernationals and there are 520 advance entries. There are five more sections in SN VI than there were in SN V. The K-12U1900 started last year. The K-6U1400, K-5U1200, K-1U500/unr start this year. For the first time this year also sees K-3U1000 and K-3U700 instead of K-3U800.
My best guess is 5750 for the final number.
The totals for the 2014-2016 Elementary/JH/HS spring nationals were 4450, 4623 and 4842.
In 2009 there were about 1000 with five weeks to go, about 2700 with a month to go, 3710 with three weeks to go, 4539 with two weeks to go, 4762 with nine days to go, 4875 with one week to go, broke 5000 at 10 AM on the Monday before and finished with 5247. The 2006-2008 totals for the Elementary/JH/HS spring nationals were 4505, 4543 and 4315
In 2013 there were 1812 with three weeks to go (just before the first entry fee increase), 4012 with 16 days to go, 4810 with one week to go, broke 5000 the Sunday before and finished with 5335 (the current record). The 2010-2012 totals for the Elementary/JH/HS spring nationals were 4297, 3917, 4192.
I’m going to be busy tomorrow so here is the 5 weeks + 1 day number: 1026
That is a little better than 2009 even though 2009 had the entry distribution more front-loaded than the record setting 2013. I’m guessing that 2017 will be closer to the 2013 pattern with later entries and that gives me a fair amount of confidence in reaching my 5750 prediction. It may be that Ryan’s 6000 is low.
You could use the crosstables to get an idea, assuming TDs were given credit in sections appropriately which I assume they would. I do know there is limited amount of space to fill in TDs though so consider it a “low end” estimate.
1345 as of 4/12. I imagine that many schools will be sending in their entries after Easter and spring break. Most of the scholastic tournament championships have been wrapped up. States that have mandated testing regimes are also finishing up. While spring sports and school musicals are ramping up, for the dedicated chess players the chess season from May to August is just starting.
With picture technology increasing exponentially in the last few years, I have a question. Does the Gaylord complex have a policy on drones, GoPros, and other devices? A bird’s eye view of the tournament rooms and other parts of the venue is now possible. Drones with cameras are getting smaller and quieter. Phone cameras have picture and video capabilities. Pen sized cameras are becoming more affordable. What USCF policies are going to be in place?
One should not be so quick to make light of Mr. Magar’s question. The technology has been available for some time now, and if it has not yet been used, IT WILL BE USED IN THE FUTURE!
I have to leave for Geneva the weekend of Supernationals, so I will not be on Chris’s staff.
But if he and others are willing to take advice:
Drones and their controllers run on batteries. Batteries discharge during use. When a battery on a drone or its controller discharges beyond a critical point, the drone falls from the sky and onto whatever is below it.
I’ve dealt with this issue on the soccer pitch. The only reasonable answer in the absence of due diligence as to a drone’s battery capacity is “Not over my soccer pitch.” US Chess’s answer ought to be, “Not in our tournament hall.”
1516 at four weeks out uschess.org/tournaments/2017 … ge=ADVANCE
The lowest entry fee rate expires in 10 days. Four years ago 1812 at the three week mark resulted in a record-holding 5335.
197 in the past 3 days
293 in the 5 days before that
290 in the 6 days before that
135 in the 7 days before that
Continuing at a steady 65/day clip over the next week will give 1971 at the three week mark (5803 total if finishing similar to 2013). Note that the entries per day has been increasing, not simply staying steady.
I believe April 24th is the first registration deadline, and May 5th is the second deadline.
A blast went out late last week on this event, that and the upcoming deadline should have an impact over the next week to 10 days.
As I understand it (from the tournament info page), both the Gaylord and the overflow hotel are practically sold out, but chess players being chess players, they tend to wait to the last minute to register for the tournament itself.
3 weeks and 2 days out with 1919 entries.
Yesterday afternoon saw 2017 pass the 2013 numbers at three weeks out (1827 to 1812 when I looked).
403 entries in 5 days may mean we have 2080 at the three week mark. If everything else remains in proportion to 2013 then we’d end up with 6124 players. When the on-line entry system really hit its stride it resulted in people delaying when they would actually enter and increasing the importance of checking on how much of the hotel room block was sold out (people don’t rush when there is no limit on the number of entries but they will rush to nail down their portion of a limited number of hotel rooms). I figure there is probably a very big standard deviation around that 6124 number.
The increase already done in the size of the TD staff would seem to handle about 6750 at the same player/TD ratio as 2013’s 5335. The generally higher certification levels would likely support being at least as effective with an even higher number of players. Five weeks ago 6000 was the point where I would be surprised (shocked at 6500). Now I would no longer be surprised at 6000.
PS AR is now represented. (still missing AK, HI, ME, MT, ND, NH, NV, SC, SD, VT)
Added: 1983 at 5 PM CDT. 2034 at 11 PM CDT. That is 115 in a 10 hour period. (1827 to 1983 was a 156 player increase in a 24 hour period).
