Supernationals VI (2017) attendance

All Things Chess
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three weeks plus one day to go
Chicago times
5 PM Tuesday passed 1800
11 AM Wednesday passed 1900
8 PM Wednesday passed 2000
11:20 AM Thursday passed 2100 (roughly 200 in about 24 hours)
Currently 2174 (and added ME as a state)

In 2013 we were using the April supplement so people knew in March what ratings would be used. This year we are using the May supplement and that is being created today, so a number of entries may have been delayed because of the section uncertainty. 2013 saw 1812 at 21 days out become 4012 with 16 days to go (waiting that long to look allowed counting most entries mailed in by the end of the period with the lowest entry fee - good through the 18th day before the tournament).

2013 had a final number of 5335. If the same ratios hold and we reach 2350 tomorrow then the final numbers would be about 6900 and the 16-days-to-go numbers would be about 5200. The staff this time is larger and higher-certified/more-experienced, so we’d very likely still be fine, but it is good that the number of TDs was increased to 100.

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I thought the Chief TD (Chris, in this case) was the Event Chief. What is an Event Chief? :blush:

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CDT
3:40 PM Thursday to pass 2200
9:30 PM to pass 2300
Midnight 2324
6:20 AM Friday 2337

The limiting factor might be the number of hotel room nights available. I know people who aren’t going only because they couldn’t get a hotel within five miles of the Gaylord.

The event chiefs were called division chiefs last time and are the chiefs of the HS, JH and Elementary.

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Each event, High School, Junior High and Elementary, has an Event Chief TD just as they would during the regular nationals. For SuperNationals there is a Chief TD above them as there is a need for a lot of coordination between the 3 events that doesn’t happen when they are held separately. However, it would be too much for that Chief TD to be expected to fulfill the usual role of Event Chief for all 3 events when they are held together.

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Supernationals is so big it doesn’t fit into the existing TD assignment categories, and there is no reporting category for ‘event chief’, so any TD using service at SuperNationals for certification advancement should get a letter from the chief TD denoting the duties and responsibilities performed.

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3 weeks out and at exactly 2400. More will be added today but this is the same time of day as the 1812 number from 2013. If everything is proportional to 2013 (it won’t be, but it gives a starting point) then we are looking at a final number of 7066 and a 16 days out number of 5314.

This is copied from the first post. The 16 days out number will help us see whether we are proportionally mirroring 2013 or 2009.
In 2009 there were about 1000 with five weeks to go, about 2700 with a month to go, 3710 with three weeks to go, 4539 with two weeks to go, 4762 with nine days to go, 4875 with one week to go, broke 5000 at 10 AM on the Monday before and finished with 5247. The 2006-2008 totals for the Elementary/JH/HS spring nationals were 4505, 4543 and 4315

In 2013 there were 1812 with three weeks to go (just before the first entry fee increase), 4012 with 16 days to go, 4810 with one week to go, broke 5000 the Sunday before and finished with 5335 (the current record). The 2010-2012 totals for the Elementary/JH/HS spring nationals were 4297, 3917, 4192.

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I think we’ll break 6,000, but I’d be surprised if it goes much higher. More likely that’s there more people taking advantage of the early entry price. In any case this will be quite interesting.

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10:38 AM CDT on 4/22 - 2601
7:43 PM CDT on 4/22 - 2704
5:07 PM CDT on 4/23 - 2907 (NH has an entry)
10:10 PM CDT on 4/23 - 3124 (states not yet represented: AK, HI, MT, ND, NV, SD, VT)

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I’ve had my hotel booked for months but always planned to register this weekend. The supplement is now closed and one of my kids did move into another class. I prefer to register on the weekend, after the supplement is closed, but before the EF rises. My guess is we will see a lot of registrations before EOD on 4/22.

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I don’t have the 2009 Supernationals event book when I was a player readily but I think I remember seeing the phrase “SuperChief” TD for the TD overseeing all 3 Nationals and the standard Chief TD HS/JH/Elem for the “Event Chief”…

… or I just remembered wrong and thought the role of “SuperChief TD” is an unique title for the SuperNationals. :smiley:

Best,
~Ybriang
Brian Yang

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6:20 AM 4/24 (final day of the lowest entry fee) - 3199 and three of the (currently) four simuls are filled. With 476 players, the blitz might be half filled.
3202 at 6:57 AM CDT

uschess.org/tournaments/2017 … ge=ADVANCE

(states not yet represented: AK, HI, MT, ND, NV, SD, VT)

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So 2013 at this point there were 1812 registered?!?

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Wow. 6,000 is looking more and more like a good number.

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3326 in the main event as of 11:00 AM on the 24th.

We are currently 18 days out from the event, which starts on May 12th. On the comparable day in 2013 (the 2013 event was in April, not May) we were at 3710, but there are still 13 hours left today. But in 2013 the first cutoff was on March 17th, a Sunday, this year it’s on a Monday. (I think the office has been standardizing on Monday cutoff dates since 2013, in part because it’s hard to get something postmarked on a Sunday any more.) 576 entries were processed on 3/17/2013, there have been about 145 processed so far today and 419 yesterday.

There are usually some large entries that are mailed to the office, so they show up in the totals a few days after a cutoff date.

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12:42 PM 4/24 (final day of the lowest entry fee) - 3375
2013 blitz had 307 K-12, 233 K-9, 262 K-6, 127 K-3. So for the 2017 numbers are 96, 124, 161, 107.
If we were proportionally mirroring 2009 then we would have 2936 next Friday and 3394 total. Since we are already way ahead of 2936 and have almost passed 3394, it looks like the 2009 numbers are irrelevant. [note 3395 was reached at 1:22 PM CDT on 4/24]
Being proportional to 2013 means the 2400 on 2017’s Friday lunchtime would compare to 2013’s 1812, 5314 (day after tomorrow) would compare to 2013’s following Wednesday [4012], 6371 on 5/5 [vs 4810] and 7066 for a final total [vs 5335]. 2013 average 440 per day from lunchtime to lunchtime on the dates corresponding to 4/21/17 - 4/26/17, and reaching 5314 would require averaging 583.

uschess.org/tournaments/2017 … ge=ADVANCE

(states still not yet represented: AK, MT, ND, NV, SD, VT)

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Over/under on the states still not represented: I’d set it at 2 and take the under.

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8:53 PM 4/24 - 3724. Today the K-9 unrated finally got large enough to be a Swiss instead of a round robin.
300 in the next 40 hours will exceed the 16-day mark leading to the 2013 number of 5335. 1600 in the next 40 hours will be on track for 7000. 800 in the next 40 hours would aim more for 6000.
10:14 PM 4/24 - 3887 (126 in the next 38 hours passes the 16-day mark in 2013). 688 so far today.
6:17 AM 4/25 - 3965 (indicates that more than 750 were entered on Monday). 47 in the next 30 hours will match the next 2013 benchmark. I think it is safe to say that number will be significantly exceeded just by the mailed in entries that have not yet arrived.

12:30 PM CDT 4/25 - 4031
4:43 PM CDT 4/25 - 4227
9:44 PM CDT 4/25 - 4273

2009: 5-weeks=1000; 1-month=2700; 3-weeks=3710; 2-weeks=4539; 9-days=4762; 1-week=4875; final=5247.
2013: 3-weeks=1812; 16-days=4012; 1-week=4810; final=5335.

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6:19 AM 5/26 - starting the day with 4277 (plus 611 in the blitz, main event rated-player section sizes range from 68 to 396 with three so far due for accelerated pairings, unrated-player sizes from 30 to 59)

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While Jeff has kept the readers posted on the pre-registrations, it is worth noting that this will be the strongest SuperNationals so far, and by far! Here are some historical facts, using pre-tournament ratings as shown on MSA:

SN I, Knoxville, TN, 1997 – 9 masters, all in the K-12 Championship. Only one over 2300 (Mike Klein 2311).

SN II, Kansas City, MO, 2001 – 6 masters, all in the K-12 Championship. Two 2400s (Irina Krush 2445 & Hikaru Nakamura 2412) and one 2300.

SN III, Nashville, TN, 2005 – 8 masters:
Seven masters in the K-12. Three 2400s (Top seed Alex Lenderman 2483) and one 2300.
One master in the K-9 (2254)

SN IV, Nashville, TN, 2009 – 17 masters:
15 in the K-12. One 2500 (Robert Hess 2580), one 2400 and one 2300.
Two in the K-9 (Top seed 2299).

SN V, Nashville, TN, 2013 – 31 masters:
22 in the K-12. Five 2400s (Top seed Aleksandr Ostrovskiy 2457), six 2300s.
Seven in the K-9. Five 2300s.
Two in the K-8.

SN VI, Nashville, TN, 2017. As of 9 AM today – 4,280 players registered; 52 masters (using May Rating Supplement)!
34 in the K-12. Two 2500s (Nicholas Checa 2528 and Cameron Wheeler 2502), eight 2400s and 10 2300s (including Maggie Feng 2352).
11 in the K-9. Three 2300s including the top two seeds, both girls, Carissa Yip 2354 and Annie Wang 2308!
4 in the K-8. One 2400 (Top seed Hans Niemann 2412)
One in the K-6
Two in the K-5
We even have two Class A players in the K-1 Championship!

Although I was the Chief TD for SuperNationals IV and V, this is the first (and only time) that I have the privilege of organizing the event. And, while I recognize that many factors affect the attendance, particularly our chess growth among young players in the last few years, I was fortunate to secure the attendance of a tremendous All-Star lineup of Champions, including Former World Champion Garry Kasparov, GMs Maurice Ashley, Sam Shankland, Timur Gareyev, and Irina Krush, IM/WGM Nazi Paikidze and WGM Sabina Foisor. In addition to the main event, our team has a lot of activities planned to make this “Super-event” extra special. Hopefully, all this will result in a record-breaking event and, more importantly, the delivery will be just as good. Not taking chances, I will be sending out another email blast this Friday followed by another pre-tournament article on US Chess News…

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Hotel sleeping room availability is likely to be the limiting factor in attendance at SuperNationals.

I was pleased to see that a Lincoln NE K-8 parochial school is sending a total of 18 players to Nashville, ranging from grades 3 through 8. No, they aren’t likely to contend for any big prizes, but this has to be a big event for that school, one they’ve been planning for some time, including fundraising.

It should be a fantastic experience for those students, one they’ll remember for years, and THAT is what an event like SuperNationals can do.