Franc, you’ve done an incredible job with a huge event. The guest list is impressive.
6:19 AM 5/26 - starting the day with 4277 (plus 611 in the blitz, main event rated-player section sizes range from 68 to 396 with three so far due for accelerated pairings, unrated-player sizes from 30 to 59)
1:19 PM CDT 5/25 - 4352 - the three-week number proportions between 2013 and 2017 pointed towards a 7066 turnout in 2017 while the 16-day proportions point to s 5787 turnout. That is a fairly wide range. 6000 still looks reasonable. 6500 is plausible. 7000 is really pushing it. Blitz is up to 636.
5:51 PM CDT 5/25 - 4477
6,000 players would be about 21,000 rated games-- that sounds like the largest USCF-rated event ever held.
Don’t forget a potential 6,000 blitz-rated games, assuming 1,000 players and 6 double-rounds.
6:34 AM CDT 4/27 - 4497 to start the day (220 since yesterday morning). Plus 643 in the blitz sections. Sections for rated players ranging from 69 to 423 players (second smallest is 129, four have already reached the 257 needed for accelerated pairings, two more are over 250 and three more are over 200). Sections for unrated players ranging from 29 to 57 (some are getting transferred to rated sections as alternate rating systems are taken into account).
12:40 PM - 4535
As of this afternoon, 4542 and climbing. At the rate of 200 per day for the next week, 6000 players is well within reach. Wonder how many entries are coming by mail? It now takes up to four days for a first class letter to reach a destination. Anyone dropping entries in the mail this week or over the weekend won’t see their names appear until the middle of next week.
Someone asked me a silly question on Monday. What will the USCF do if ICE agents appear at the venue or request to see the data in the entry list? I told him that the USCF is too tiny for the government to bother with, but he was concerned for friends who may have expired visas or technical problems with work status. The aggressiveness of the DHS lately has many in the immigrant community on edge.
I don’t understand. Surely US Chess doesn’t consider players/parents to be employees.
Alex Relyea
Well, we don’t have any information about family members, and we don’t collect any information other than what is on the entry form.
As for US Chess employees they all have to fill out the proper hiring forms including IN9s.
As for TDs and other contract staff, they are just that - contract staff. They have to have a valid tax ID number to submit for payment since all payments are reported to the government on 1099s and then we have to follow up on any 1099s that get kicked back (which to my knowledge has never happened) and do back up withholding on future transactions.
We post the entry list online and on boards in the lobby. No one even needs to ask US Chess for data - most of it is already out there. The entry list would not create any sort of situation with a work visa as the players are not working. All they can win is a trophy and the undying respect of their peers.
11:30 PM CDT 4/27 - 4645 (148 more during the day). Plus 680 in blitz sections. Rated players sections range from 74 and 129 to 443. with six already over 256, five more at least 200 and nine of the remaining 10 over 100. The four Unrated players sections range from 34 to 62.
uschess.org/tournaments/2017 … ge=ADVANCE
2009: 5-weeks=1000; 1-month=2700; 3-weeks=3710; 2-weeks=4539; 9-days=4762; 1-week=4875; Monday=5000; final=5247.
2013: 3-weeks=1812; 16-days=4012; 1-week=4810; Sunday=5000; final=5335.
149 entries were processed on Thursday, so the flood is slowing down. In 2013 there were 1168 entries processed in the final two weeks before the event. There were 4664 entries as of midnight Thursday, if the trend holds from 2013, then it’d hit around 5800.
12:48 PM CDT - 2-week mark - 4722 entries (4757 at 1:07 PM - +35 in 19 minutes) (4761 at 1:16 PM - about to pass the 2009 9-day number with five days to spare)
The current entry fee is only good through next Friday (5/5), so it will probably slow a little bit and then jump at the 1-week mark.
I predicted 5750 seven weeks ago and now I’m finding 6250 to be reasonable.
Currently the race for largest number from one state has NY with about 40% more than TX, so Texas is still within striking range. The race for third has TN, IL and FL all within 10% of each other.
12:50 PM CDT 4/21 - 2400
3:17 PM CDT 4/28 - 4804
That is 170 hours and 27 minutes to double the numbers, at a time when there were still 330 hours and 43 minutes to register and play in round one.
6:30 AM CDT 4/29 - 4829 to start the day. (165 entries came in on Friday)
6:21 AM CDT 4/30 - 4852 to start the day. (23 on Saturday) ($70 entry fee good through 5/5) (+670 in the blitz sections)
6:20 AM CDT 5/1 - 4886 to start the day. (36 entries came in on Sunday)
+675 blitz entries
Monday through Friday are the last days at the $70 rate so things may start picking up now.
12:43 PM CDT 5/1 - 4915. Entries generally show up later in the day and in the early evening. In past years the earliest that we broke 5000 was the Sunday before (after the increase from $70 to $85) so it will be interesting to see when 5000 is reached this year with $70 still being good through Friday. We still need another 250 or so blitz entries to reach the 2013 numbers (blitz traditionally has a lot of entries on the day of the side event).
No entries yet from AK, MT, ND, NV, SD, VT
6:23 AM CDT 5/2 - 4939. (53 came in on Monday). +680 for the blitz (+5 on Monday)
12:31 PM CDT 5/2 - 4971 (6 sections over the 256 acceleration point, 6 more over 200 with 2 of those within 10% of acceleration, 8 more over 100, 1 more for rated players at 76 / the 4 sections for only unrated players range from 37 to 67 with a total of 197) +682 for blitz. Four years ago the final morning numbers had 990 for NY and 512 for TX (following a surge in the final week). Today they are 920 for NY and 696 for TX, so it may be interesting to see if there is another final week surge by TX and just how its numbers will match up with NY at the end.
Oh, my. Jeff, you are ON THIS. The REAL thread on this subject is here.
6:15 AM CDT 5/3 - 4990 to start the day (51 came in on Tuesday) +687 for the blitz (+7 on Tuesday).
I finally think it is safe to say that 5000 will be passed today, though a week ago I would have thought it likely to have been this past weekend.
I have to wonder what the numbers would be with more hotel rooms available near the venue.
5016 as of 1:15 pm EDT today, 5/13.
Reached 5000 at 9:50 AM CDT. That is a full four days farther in advance of the tournament than in the previous Supernationals years.
5 PM CDT - 5040, +694 blitz
The K-5 Championship looks to be stronger and deeper than the K-6. If the K-1 sections were in the same room as the other elementary school sections, the total would be around 2500, so far. The depth of strength (rating 2000+) in many of the championship sections is astonishing. There seems to be a lot of “girl power”, too.
How many have signed up for Bughouse?
Bughouse signups are done on site only. There were a number of problems in the past with double-payment (both players paying for the team), with no payment and with multiple players picking the same teammate.
Should we ask for volunteers to keep score for the moves of each match? It will require an extra long and extra wide scoresheet so that both games can be on one score with it clear as to which white and which black is making a particular move at the moment. Then analysis can be done later so that people can see whether or not a chance was missed and whether or not an apparent blunder was actually the best move considering the situation on the other board. You could score something as Ng4, Nxg4 or N@g4 depending on whether it is a move, capture or plop.
PS Last years Elementary was 2260 and there were four sections added for this year, so only 2500 is a bit disappointing.
6:25 AM CDT 5/4 - 5054 to start the day (64 came in on Wednesday) +698 for the blitz (+11 on Wednesday). 2557 elementary (vs 2260 last year). 1102 JH (vs 1138 last year), 1395 HS (vs 1492 in Columbus in 2015).
Today and tomorrow are the last days of the $70 rate, so I’m hoping to see a few hundred entries getting in under the wire.
The blitz always has a lot of last day entries so being under 700 is not really a concern.
12:50 PM CDT 5/4 - 5067 in the main event and the blitz is up to 702.
With more than a week to go we are trailing elementary by only 93, JH by only 129 and HS by only 48 - but note that the individual HS in 2015 was more than the 2013 count)
2013 2017 so far
K1 349 360 (new U500 section)
K3 834 719 (old 800 section became new U700 and U1000 sections)
K5 767 869 (new U1200 section)
K6 703 612 (new U1400 section)
El 2653 2560 (2260 last year)
K8 766 789
K9 466 314
JH 1232 1103 (1138 last year)
HS 1452 1404 (1492 in 2015) (new U1900 section added last year)
Note that 2013 adds up to 5337 instead of 5335 so there were probably two mid-tournament section changes.
Sections can be interesting. 5xx or 6xx rated K-1 players may opt to play in the K3U700. For instance an 1899-rated first grader may opt to be the highest rated in K-12U1900 instead of, well, the highest rated in the K-1 championship. Okay, so that isn’t the greatest example but you can get the idea. :mrgreen:
There are a lot of other players that may move to an apparently higher-grade section that has a rating cap closer to their rating. Also, a team may be better formed in a section with a higher rating limit if it has some members too high-rated for the lower-limit sections.
K-3unr, K-6unr, K-9unr, K-12unr
K-1U500/unr
K-3U700
K-8U750
K-12U800
K-5U900
K-3U1000, K-6U1000, K-8U1000
K-5U1200, K-12U1200
K-9U1250
K-6U1400
K-12U1600
K-12U1900
K-1ch, K-3ch, K-5ch, K-6ch, K-8ch, K-9ch, K-12ch
1:25 PM CDT 5/4 - 5094
5:00 PM CDT 5/4 - 5137 (83 so far on 5/4) (199 from a new record - well, it will actually need to be a bit more to cover for no-shows)
10:36 PM - 5159 (more than 100 in one day). Add 732 in the blitz.
6:32 AM CDT 5/5 - 5168 (114 entries on Thursday). Add 734 in the blitz (36 added on Thursday)
7 sections with more than 256 entries and thus available for acceleration (past experience is that only championship sections get accelerated). Another four sections over 200. Another nine sections over 100. The smallest section for rated players (K-9 championship) has 81 so far. The four sections for only unrated players so far range from 43 to 68.
Still 48 out of 52 “states” represented. (California is split into 2 and DC is counted as a “state”)